Mike Milbury and other pundits are all now wringing their hands about the 5OT game that happened yesterday between Colombus and Tampa Bay.
Let's go to the data, shall we?
According to Hockey-Reference.com (who literally updates stats within minutes of games ending), there have been 845 OT games in NHL Playoff History POST the 1937 season.
NOTE: From 1928-1937, the NHL played some "total goal" series. As a result, a game could go to OT if the total goals (aggregate) were tied, even if the individual game wasn't tied.
So excluding those, of the 845 OT games the distribution by number of OT is as follows:
- 1 OT - 679 (80.36%)
- 2 OT - 122 (14.44%)
- 3 OT - 33 (3.91%)
- 4 OT - 8 (0.95%)
- 5 OT - 3 (0.36%)
So across 82 YEARS, 94.5% of all OT are completed in 2 OTs or less. The 3+ are RARE as in 5.21% rare. The 80/20 rule is literally the 95/5 rule here.
Looking at the data further for those who want to pivot the argument to "what if it Series clinching game"
- 1 OT - 127 of 679 were series clinching games (18.70% of the 80.36%)
- 2 OT - 29 of 122 (23.77% of the 14.44%)
- 3 OT - 7 of 33 (21.21% of the 3.91%)
- 4 OT - 3 of 8 (37.50% of the 0.95%)
- 5 OT - never
This does tell a different story however, given you never know if the game will be the series clincher or a series extender, you can't deploy some special rules using this argument, it needs to be consistent across every game of the playoffs, no matter the point or moment of the post-season.
Lastly, there have been 77 OT games in the Stanley Cup Finals, of which, 15 were games where the Cup was won and that is 19.48%. (still fitting into the 80/20 rule here)
I'm not sure IF there's anything to be done about the overtime rules in the NHL, but clearly we're talking about a very small percentage that even go more than 2 OT and almost all cases can be argued that the 80/20 rule is more than sufficient here.
Take a look at the data yourself if you find a way to disagree with me, I'm always open to learning other opinions.
