12 August 2020

Let's go to the data, Overtime in the NHL Playoffs

Mike Milbury and other pundits are all now wringing their hands about the 5OT game that happened yesterday between Colombus and Tampa Bay.

Let's go to the data, shall we?

According to Hockey-Reference.com (who literally updates stats within minutes of games ending), there have been 845 OT games in NHL Playoff History POST the 1937 season.

NOTE: From 1928-1937, the NHL played some "total goal" series. As a result, a game could go to OT if the total goals (aggregate) were tied, even if the individual game wasn't tied.

So excluding those, of the 845 OT games the distribution by number of OT is as follows:

  • 1 OT - 679 (80.36%)
  • 2 OT - 122 (14.44%)
  • 3 OT - 33 (3.91%)
  • 4 OT - 8 (0.95%)
  • 5 OT - 3 (0.36%)
So across 82 YEARS, 94.5% of all OT are completed in 2 OTs or less. The 3+ are RARE as in 5.21% rare. The 80/20 rule is literally the 95/5 rule here.

Looking at the data further for those who want to pivot the argument to "what if it Series clinching game"
  • 1 OT - 127 of 679 were series clinching games (18.70% of the 80.36%)
  • 2 OT - 29 of 122 (23.77% of the 14.44%)
  • 3 OT - 7 of 33 (21.21% of the 3.91%)
  • 4 OT - 3 of 8 (37.50% of the 0.95%)
  • 5 OT - never
This does tell a different story however, given you never know if the game will be the series clincher or a series extender, you can't deploy some special rules using this argument, it needs to be consistent across every game of the playoffs, no matter the point or moment of the post-season.

Lastly, there have been 77 OT games in the Stanley Cup Finals, of which, 15 were games where the Cup was won and that is 19.48%. (still fitting into the 80/20 rule here)

I'm not sure IF there's anything to be done about the overtime rules in the NHL, but clearly we're talking about a very small percentage that even go more than 2 OT and almost all cases can be argued that the 80/20 rule is more than sufficient here.

Take a look at the data yourself if you find a way to disagree with me, I'm always open to learning other opinions.

01 May 2020

Goodbye, Farewell and Amen - F**k this virus

F**K this virus, really, man.

So although I've been very lucky to only receive a temporary reduction in pay during this crisis, others at my company haven't not been.

Part of that is two very special people in my work-life that have been made redundant (laid off) and today was their last day.

The problem with having to work from home is you don't get that last chance to say goodbye and although, with one of them, we have a friendship outside of work, with the other, I do not.

Trish leaves the firm after 45 years of service (we just celebrated this in late Feb) and although she DID plan on retiring at the end of the year, this pre-emptively moved that up.  What can I say about Trish?  She's the one that hired me 28+ years ago.  So if you're reading this and you work with me, well, she's the one to blame for the headaches I might cause you from day to day.  In spite of her being a bit of a dress-code Nazi in the first year (you know, back in the early 90s when you had to wear a tie every day and we didn't have 'casual Friday' where you could rock the jeans), she's become one of my dearest friends and essentially family.

Wendy was more of my first day-to-day mentor as I moved off of the phone center floor and into a Supervisor position.  She leaves after 29 years of service.  She taught me all the nuts and bolts of running the floor and making sure everyone was doing their job properly.  We weren't selling anything, we do market research surveys so you have to make sure that the interviewers aren't biasing or leading the consumers in their responses otherwise, the data ends up being suspect.  Wendy along with Trish, Sharon and Erin were female forces to reckon with.  I was so lucky to learn everything from them and there are skills I learned that I still put to use today.

Sharon left the company back in the mid 00's as did Erin but we lost Erin to domestic violence a few years ago. Rot in Hell, Lee!!

But today, I remember all the fun times we had late into the evenings, doing our tally sheets and organizing the sample baskets.  Of how, as telephone research started phasing out, we all found other opportunities within the company and always took the time to stop and chat if we were passing in the hallways.

From a relative small company to a global footprint of 54+ countries, it's always been about the people.  Former CEO, Eric Salama always said it and he always truly meant it.  It does make me wonder how that continues to erode slowly over time and although there will often be signposts reminding me that we're a business and you need to make money and be profitable, I worry that in tough times like these, if the "about the people" is more lip service than reality.  I get it, I really do.  If we don't perform, we perish. As I said at the top, I do feel lucky to only have a pay reduction when the alternative is much, much more painful.  But the brass ring is starting to become visible and I know if I keep up the hard work, I'll get there on my timeline and not anyone elses.

Gonna miss you Trish and Wendy and probably others who, didn't send out notices or reach out because they are upset, mad, hurt by these decisions. I'm here for you to chat with if you need it, no restrictions.

And so, here is some Tibetan throat singing group with Metal Queen Lzzy Hale with Song for Women.


08 April 2020

Cough, cough, is this thing on?

Holy crap.  Where in the Sam Hill have you been?

Life.  Life in all of it's miserable, joyful, happy, agonizing splendor, that's where.

Five years.  Five relatively long years.  Just under 10% of my life.  Life gets in the way of having a really good fricking time, that's for sure.

So, we're all locked down in our bunkers.  Karens of the world, calling 9-1-1 on anyone having a walk down the street, riding a bike, heading out to the cul-de-sac to meet up with neighbors to have a drink (celebratory and otherwise), keeping our six-plus feet apart to break up the cabin fever.

Why the hell not get back to writing my thoughts, my fears, my struggle on a daily basis with life.

Where does one start when you've not posted in five-plus years?

Well, the Chicago Cubs finally won the damn World Series, now ain't that a pip?  Of course, living up to that magic year has been a Sisyphean task it seems.  Five generations of my family waiting for that moment, only 3 of the generations alive.  I thought I'd be a massive puddle of tears on that night, but no, it's was so joyful.  Irony of it all was that the game was on what would have been my Grandfather's 100th Birthday if he had still been alive.

Maybe that's what kept the tears from flowing?

Okay, enough for tonight.  I need to commit to this again, spill my brain out in digital "ink" and mostly because I do fight demons in my head.  Times like these aren't necessarily good if you have those passengers riding along every day and night.

Just need my sanity.  I have much to live for so don't think I'm teetering, I'm not.

21 January 2015

American Sniper : my thoughts

I've had a few days to reflect on it and have watched all the bullcr@p flying back and forth from the right and left.

80% of the posts I see and the drivel I'm hearing are missing the damn point about American Sniper.

Maybe I'm lucky because I heard an hour long interview with Chris Kyle when the book came out (which made me buy the book) but his point of writing the book was to show the incredible toll military service and especially what he had to do as a sniper, took on his marriage, family and mental health.

I think Eastwood accurately captured a LOT of this when he was at home and was at a party in his own backyard and he zoned out and then went after the dog. The heartbreak of watching his little brother on the tarmac who he was really happy to see, but his brother just wanted the hell out of there. The inability to deal with "real life" upon his multiple returns until his shrink made him go talk to others who have lived, who had been "saved".

When I hear "right wing propoganda/nazi-like and immoral, egotistical, psychotic" references about the movie or the man or the equal "libtards hating on an American hero and yeah, kill shots on the muslims" it's driving me absolutely batsh!t crazy because you've all missed the damn point over and over again.

Yes, war is horrible, they happen and that's an ENTIRELY different debate about the real "psychopaths" who send our young men and women into harm's way but for those who dedicate their life to service, to protect us and our freedoms, a lot of irreparable damage happens to some of them.  That same damage is what ended up being the cause of Chris Kyle's death. He admitted in that interview that he wasn't back to normal but he was as healthy mentally as he could be at that point. He was helping a LOT of fellow veterans who were coming back with severe PTSD and issues. He was doing what a lot of other people should be doing and making sure there's funding for.

I see the elected officials from the RIGHT more than willing to send the troops but unable to pass funding for proper care and mental health when they return.  I see the same on the LEFT ALSO voting to send them and then deny funding to give them the right equipment to do their jobs when they are there.  And I see hundreds of thousands of bumper stickers saying to "support our troops" and scratch my head to wonder if that just means when they are out responding to conflicts around the world, when they come home to massive fan fare and celebrations or if it even includes those dark, desperate times when they are having issues adjusting back into civilian life.

THAT'S THE POINT OF AMERICAN SNIPER. It's what Kyle said it was in the interview I heard.  not the kill shots or his arrogance. Not Hollywood elites spouting off or other SEALs responding back.  It's the damage Kyle inflicted on others as well as what was inflicted on him.