Let's go to the data, Overtime in the NHL Playoffs

Mike Milbury and other pundits are all now wringing their hands about the 5OT game that happened yesterday between Colombus and Tampa Bay.

Let's go to the data, shall we?

According to Hockey-Reference.com (who literally updates stats within minutes of games ending), there have been 845 OT games in NHL Playoff History POST the 1937 season.

NOTE: From 1928-1937, the NHL played some "total goal" series. As a result, a game could go to OT if the total goals (aggregate) were tied, even if the individual game wasn't tied.

So excluding those, of the 845 OT games the distribution by number of OT is as follows:

• 1 OT - 679 (80.36%)
• 2 OT - 122 (14.44%)
• 3 OT - 33 (3.91%)
• 4 OT - 8 (0.95%)
• 5 OT - 3 (0.36%)

So across 82 YEARS, 94.5% of all OT are completed in 2 OTs or less. The 3+ are RARE as in 5.21% rare. The 80/20 rule is literally the 95/5 rule here.

Looking at the data further for those who want to pivot the argument to "what if it Series clinching game"

• 1 OT - 127 of 679 were series clinching games (18.70% of the 80.36%)
• 2 OT - 29 of 122 (23.77% of the 14.44%)
• 3 OT - 7 of 33 (21.21% of the 3.91%)
• 4 OT - 3 of 8 (37.50% of the 0.95%)
• 5 OT - never

This does tell a different story however, given you never know if the game will be the series clincher or a series extender, you can't deploy some special rules using this argument, it needs to be consistent across every game of the playoffs, no matter the point or moment of the post-season.

Lastly, there have been 77 OT games in the Stanley Cup Finals, of which, 15 were games where the Cup was won and that is 19.48%. (still fitting into the 80/20 rule here)

I'm not sure IF there's anything to be done about the overtime rules in the NHL, but clearly we're talking about a very small percentage that even go more than 2 OT and almost all cases can be argued that the 80/20 rule is more than sufficient here.

Take a look at the data yourself if you find a way to disagree with me, I'm always open to learning other opinions.

Big Data - Data Integration #Fail

I know we're still in the early days of the whole Big Data/Data Integration/Data Intelligence experience, but there are some days where you see something and it's just not right and you have to analyze it.

As we're on our way upwards towards the 'Peak of Inflated Expectations', something like this appears in my LinkedIn timeline a couple hours ago.  This announcement was a surprise to me!

So, first of all, I check my brain and wonder if I really AM traveling soon.  I'm not.

Secondly, I know that I personally know of two other Brian LoCicero's (one even has the middle initial P, like myself) living in the United States (one in CA and the other in FL) and wonder if maybe our timelines got goofed up.  They haven't.

Thirdly, I realize that at one point, I integrated my "TripIt" account with my LinkedIn account because our corporate travel agency owns that site and well, it was fun to see when I was traveling, if any of my professional contacts were also going to be in those cities and hopefully, if they are competitors, NOT at my client ;-p. (You know who you are!!!)

Yes, that was it.  However, I added no trip to my TripIt account whereby _I_ was going to Memphis this week.  But I know someone who IS going there.

Ahhh, that's it!!  Separately, I also let the TripIt website connect with my personal email account where I forward all of my work travel plans so that it could periodically scan my email, pick up travel emails that have specific details and then integrate them into the TripIt site so my lazy butt wouldn't have to type all of them in.  TripIt also has a nice mobile app for when you're traveling which is a convenient place to find your itinerary.

But here's where the intelligence broke down.  My WIFE actually forwarded me her travel itinerary so that I'd know where she's going to be and when.  TripIt wasn't smart enough to pick up it wasn't travel for ME and integrated it and then LinkedIn picked up the feed off of there.

One could see how this sort of mix-up could make spouses get a little nervous that communication has broken down.  What if my boss forwarded me his travel schedule which coincided with a conference I was going to.  It could make people freak.

I'm sure this will all get sorted as we move along the hype cycle but it shows how wrong one could be without thoroughly checking the data.

Have fun in Memphis honey!